Diving into Villa's Diego Carlos dilemma

“What I’ve discovered along the way is that the road to success is usually a pretty bumpy one. And there are no shortcuts.” - Drew Brees

Bang went the crowd, and so did the achilles tendon of Diego Carlos.

Truth be told, it didn't seem so bad at the time, but a 8-9 month lay-off for Carlos is about as bad as it gets.

No, it's not the horror of Freddy Bouma, Wesley nor Luc Nilis - nor was it the sonic-boom pop that accompanied Ritchie De Laet to the injury table - or the insidious kidney tear that got to Jack Grealish - but it's right up there as a bad injury.

Approaching the age of 30, Carlos faces a tough comeback from a debilitating injury. He'll be away for months,, and it will be even longer before he's back to his best.

If he returns to close his best- as Villa Park witnessed with a heroic performance against Everton - that'll be good enough.

The worst case scenario cannot be ignored for this is a serious issue for an aging defender to face, but modern technology and methods - as well as Villa's care - have put Diego in the best possible hands.

But, what happens next?

Diagnosis: Benteke

There's talk of Carlos being back inside this season. If that occurs, then it is an incredible display of the body's resilience, as well as those modern medicinal methods mentioned above.

Villa have been here before, though, have they not?

Comparisons to Christian Benteke arise.

The Belgian missed the 2014 World Cup due to an achilles injury but returned remarkably quickly. In just 5.4 months, Benteke was back for AVFC.

However, that achilles injury may have been the undoing of Benteke - he's never come close to his goalscoring best ever since the tendon went pop, and actually had to adjust his game quite a bit despite healing.

What stands in Carlos' stead is his position, actually. He isn't required to be Benteke, but Diego Carlos. Being a centre-half on the road to recovery is a better situation than being an explosive forward. Benteke almost lost his dynamism, and played with an edge of fear with the point of change being the injury, sadly.

That's not to say that he dropped off a cliff about the rupture, but things weren't the same for him - not quite.

I'd push a theory that Diego Carlos should be fine. His striking ability isn't totally needed, and while his mobility may suffer, that was never going to be his game as he grew older anyway. The tendon will re-form stronger, and he'll be able to continue should his recovery go well.

He still faces a tougher path than Benteke. Judging footballers' playing experience by age is a hiding to nothing - we need to talk game time as well.

Benteke had played about 150 games by time the big bang came around to his ankle, Carlos has played almost double that - 275ish.

Benteke suffered the rupture at the best possible age, Carlos has theoretically suffered it at the worst.

Truth be told, we don't know how Carlos will handle this. He could come back quicker. The note to consider is that outlooks & prognosis often change, but medical opinion doesn't and the medical advice is this: don't go back onto the pitch for six months.

For all those reasons, the Benteke comparison is illegitimate. Carlos is of a different age and position entirely. His recovery may be sound, it may not be - nobody will know for months.

That in itself, is actually the biggest problem.

What do Villa do now?

Injuries are bound to happen, but Carlos' injury causes a major logistical problem for Villa. They can either stay, or push for a new signing in the same position. They don't really have the information they need to make the best possible judgement call though.

They don't know when their best defender will be back, and what the makeup of the squad will be like when he returns. They don't even know what shape the post-injury Diego Carlos will be in.

Carlos was essentially set to be a fixture in this Villa team. He already needs to be replaced.

In the immediate term for the Villans, it seems as though he will be replaced by Calum Chambers and Ezri Konsa.

I find this fairly agreeable. Tyrone Mings has already enjoyed a statement game this season, and Ezri Konsa is in dire need for one after a poor season. Chambers hasn't really enjoyed a run in this Villa team either. As they are backups, this is what they are for. Mings, Chambers and Konsa have all been hyped as youth players, and now they will enjoy another chance to deliver.

In the short term, rumors suggest that Villa have actively entered the market for a new centre-back.

This strikes me as sensible, in general, but it's also odd.

If Villa don't want to play one of Chambers or Konsa due to Diego Carlos' injury, why didn't they just sign another centre-back anyway? To root around for one due to injury smacks a little of poor planning - when they could've just done the same thing in more favourable market conditions.

For example, Villa could've already made their move and have that centre-back ready to go. If they aren't comfortable with Chambers or Konsa now, they would've been uncomfortable in July. It's a bit odd.

In terms of a replacement, a loan signing is the ideal option. For the plan to work, Villa would need to guarantee the loanee is of better quality than both Chambers and Konsa.

A permanent signing remains a choice, but again - if Villa go down this route because of one injury, why didn't they just do this earlier in the summer? One answer is that they are one more injury from playing a youngster - but that was always going to be the case anyway.

Duje Caleta-Car and Attila Szalai could be solid permanent additions, but will they take better to the Premier League than Villa's existing options?

Rob Holding; is there a gulf in quality between him and Chambers? I don't think so.

Eric Bailly is an interesting idea - a loan would surely work for all parties, and in my mind is the preferable option. A) I think he's better than most players Villa could sign for a cut-price fee and B) he's already played (and fairly well) in the league.

Boubacar Kamara and Frederic Guilbert have also played at centre-half. If Villa are playing either of them, they've had some bad luck - but they aren't exactly short of 'break in case of emergency' options, are they?

Josh Feeney, Sil Swinkels and Lamar Bogarde are the young deputies in the position, and if one of them plays, despite their promise, Villa are enduring catastrophic luck - the type of which could barely be planned for.

For me, Villa should pursue the loan deal if they are adamant on an addition. That will allow them to spend elsewhere (forward line and midfield), and can help them postpone the question for another season. In the meantime, I don't know why Calum Chambers - a player Villa signed this year - can't partner Mings.

The biggest issue isn't that Villa need a new centre-back, it's that they need Diego Carlos. After his instant impact, that looks fairly difficult right now.

You have to feel for the club, and for Carlos. Villa wanted a new CB, they bought him, and he's gone. Already.

I guess you can't really blame the Villa for going back in for a centre-back, but there are creative solutions to this sad issue. I hope they exhaust those before the cash comes out.

Get well soon Diego.

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Odds and Holte Ends

• I've been blessed with TV this week. I restarted Chernobyl (which you must watch if you haven't) and finished Better Call Saul (again). One has the best pilot episode of all time, and the other has perhaps the best finale. Both, funnily enough, teach us about sacrifice - for the state, and for yourself/love. Brilliant stuff.

• I'm a bit bemused by FBRefs use of 'player salaries'. Why? Because it's a database that prides itself on accurate statistics. Player salaries are unsourced data - and this being added to a trustworthy site will add to the cacophony of bullshit that already surrounds the beautiful game.

• Found Palace V Liverpool to be a great watch, and also well-reffed. Paul Tierney let the game be the game, and he deserves a shout-out amidst all the ref hate right now. I'm with him until he fucks over Villa.